September 8, 2009: Study: 4th Quarter 2009 US Hiring Looks Weak, but Job Prospects in 20 of 34 Other Countries Improve

After surveying 28,000 US companies on their future hiring plans, Manpower CEO Jeff Joerres reports that two-thirds of US employers will not change their staffing in the fourth quarter, thus dealing a blow to a consumer-led US economic recovery. Education and health services US employers are more positive about job prospects, while the remaining 11 employment sectors surveyed are more cautious in their plans to hire. The largest declines are in construction, leisure and hospitality, and professional and business services. The survey comes just a few days after the US jobless rate rose to a 26-year high in August to 9.7 percent, although job losses slowed. “Companies are still not going to be in hiring mode,” Joerres says. “They are in cautious mode.” According to Manpower’s international survey of 72,000 employers, previous quarter hiring expectations improved in 20 of 34 countries, although all 34 countries and territories report weaker hiring plans than a year ago. Employers in 15 countries and territories are cutting rather than adding jobs, but Asia and Europe are likely to be first to recover from the global recession. Job prospects in several Latin American countries improved. Prospects in most of Asia and Western Europe are stronger or more stable, although weaker in countries in Eastern Europe. As in the US, Mexico’s hiring plans are the weakest in the survey’s history, but optimism is higher in Canada, revealing better prospects in finance, construction, and real estate. The most optimistic employers in Asia are in India; future hiring looks improved in China, Hong Kong, and Singapore, while Japan’s fourth quarter employment view is flat. “Consumers in Asia and Europe had no need to curtail spending to the extent that Americans did,” says Joerres. “You look at major countries like the UK, Italy, France, Germany, Sweden, they’re all up. Their economies haven’t had the same hits. Other than Spain, you didn’t have a housing market as bad as this. Britain’s housing bust hurt the London area, but hiring plans are stronger in the Midlands.” Joerres cautions that because many economies still rely on exports, especially to the US, an Asian or European recovery could prove short-lived. “They can come out, but they can’t sustain the coming out until the US starts spending.” The US survey by Manpower, a global employment services company based in Milwaukee, is considered a leading indicator of labor trends. The company does business in 80 countries, generating most sales and earnings outside the United States, and conducts quarterly employer surveys. Its US survey dates back to 1962. [Reuters, 9/8/2009]