4:00 pm August 26, 2005: NHC Advisory: Hurricane Katrina, now Category 2, Likely to Become Major Hurricane

The National Hurricane Center (NHC) reports that Katrina, now a Category 2 hurricane, continues to move west-southwest away from Florida, and is expected to gradually turn west on Saturday. Models have now shifted significantly westward. The NHC states that the “projected landfall is still about 72 hours away.” (In fact, Katrina will make landfall in only 55 hours.) The NHC expects that Katrina will strengthen over the next 24 hours, becoming a Category 3—or major—hurricane later today, and may be a Category 4 hurricane at landfall. Other aspects of the NHC Advisory include:
Location: 24.8 N, 82.9 W (approximately 70 miles west-northwest of Key West, Florida)
Direction and Speed: West-southwest at near 8 mph
Maximum Sustained Winds: Near 100 mph with higher gusts
Estimated Central Pressure: 965 mb
Size: Hurricane force winds extend outward from the center up to 25 miles; and tropical storm force winds extend up to 85 miles
Probability that in the next 69 hours, Katrina’s eye will pass within 75 miles of:
Panama City, FL: 17 percent
Gulfport, MS: 16 percent
New Orleans, LA: 15 percent [National Hurricane Center, 8/26/2005; National Hurricane Center, 8/26/2005; National Hurricane Center, 8/26/2005]